A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
